Ahad, 18 Januari 2015

Anwar Ibrahim

Anwar Ibrahim


[PRESS STATEMENT] Falling oil prices and plunging ringgit: Government must step up to the plate

Posted: 18 Jan 2015 06:04 AM PST

18 JANUARY 2015
PRESS STATEMENT
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Falling oil prices and plunging ringgit: Government must step up to the plate

On December 12 last year, I told the people to brace for tougher times ahead because we

were facing a double whammy with declining international crude oil prices coupled with a

depreciation of the Ringgit at levels unseen since the Asian Financial crisis of 1997.

The prices of Brent crude oil have continued to drop. To date, it has plunged by 53% from

last year, that is, from an average of USD 108 per barrel in January 2014 to an average of

USD 51 for January 2015.

Our Ringgit is currently the weakest Asian currency, leaving aside the Yen. It has depreciated

to 3.55 Ringgit per USD from 3.32 Ringgit a year ago. Since October 2014, the ringgit has

lost almost 8.3%.

It is true that other Asian currencies have also fallen against the USD but our drop is almost

double that of the closest laggards such as the Taiwanese dollar and the Singapore dollar at

4.59% and 4.50% against the USD respectively.

Crude palm oil prices have also weakened by approximately 10% to RM 2300 per tonne.

Impact on our revenue

Income from oil and gas makes up 30% of our total government revenue. The 2015 Federal

Budget that was tabled on October 10 last year was based on an oil price range of USD 100

to 105 per barrel.

Even before the plunge to the current levels, Petronas had warned that if crude prices

averaged at USD 70 to 75, its overall contribution to government revenue would fall short of

8%. This means a shortfall of RM 19.4bn of the estimated revenue of RM 242bn against the

2015 budget projection.

Now that the oil prices have dropped by nearly half, what will be the actual impact on our

revenue?

Granted there will be savings in fuel subsidies but, as Maybank Research in its latest

publication says, a revenue shortfall of RM 8.4bn will already outweigh the subsidy saving

and result in a fiscal deficit of 4% of GDP instead of the 3% target for 2015.

According to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, crude prices may continue to hover

between the USD 40 and 50 range in 2015. What this means is that the impact on government

revenue and deficit will be even greater. Some analysts are warning of deficit levels reaching

as high as 5%. This would be further accentuated if the ringgit continues to weaken and CPO

prices continue to fall.

In terms of equity investment, according to CLSA (Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia),

Malaysia is the worst performing Asian market in 2014. While the stock exchanges in

Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore still managed to chart positive growth, our Bursa suffered

significant declines.

Apart from the factors already stated earlier, there is also the issue of foreign capital

outflows, exiting both Ringgit bonds (owning 45% of total MGS) and equity. With

weakening carry trade attraction and fiscal uncertainties these have driven the Ringgit to

historical lows and pushed MGS yields up and raised financing cost (debt to GDP at 55%).

What the government must do now

First and foremost, corruption and leakages must be tackled. We have already shown in the

Pakatan Rakyat 2015 shadow budget that a conservative saving of only 15% in government

spending leakages could save almost RM20bn or an equivalent of 1.6% of the projected

GDP.

Secondly, we must put a stop to the culture of wastage and opulent and spendthrift ways

cloaked under shady procurement processes and opaque privatisation awards. The

government must stop sweeping bad debts under the off-balance sheet carpet.

There are no alternatives to good governance other than being transparent and truthful with

information relating to the country's finances. In this regard, we are already saddled with the

scandalous 1MDB. The people will not tolerate yet another one.

Thirdly, a bi-partisan 'National Crisis Committee' should be set up without further delay

comprising government and opposition MPs, economists, market experts and other

specialists.

Inter alia, the committee should be tasked with the responsibility of monitoring commodity

prices on a daily basis and given the authority to execute any necessary measures to mitigate

any negative impacts once a consensus is obtained.

Fourthly, the government should be prepared to introduce austerity measures in the event that

oil prices go lower and remain there. This will mean cut-backs on mega projects while

continuing to spend on critical areas such as healthcare, education and the humanitarian

assistance for flood victims.

It should be noted that other oil dependent countries such as Norway (with very good

governance) are already on 'alert mode' running scenarios on the long-term effects of low oil

prices.

It is true that the movement of international commodity prices is beyond our control. But

surely we have control over how we spend our money and manage our overall finances.

This is where the government is failing and continues to fail in spite of our repeated calls to

do a reality check and put in place remedial measures. What have they been doing all this

while? Is this the kind of attitude to show case our drive for transformation?

Flood crisis and lessons drawn

It is the same attitude that had resulted in the devastation caused by the recent floods.

Flooding is an annual phenomenon going on for centuries but no serious mitigation measures

were done by the government.

In this regard, we must commend the NGOs who came in droves to help out. Comprising all

the races and religious groups this show of support and readiness to help the victims is

unprecedented and underscores the paramount importance for the Federal government to

work with Pakatan state governments and the NGOs.

Message to the rakyat

Tougher times lie ahead as government spending could be reduced and growth slows down.

The rakyat needs to remain frugal and not take on additional unnecessary debts.

As inflation continues to rise while wages remain stagnant, the rakyat will face greater

economic hardship and income inequality will continue to widen.

Meanwhile, we want the government to come clean on the economic outlook for the nation.

The people await the Tuesday announcement and expect serious and earnest efforts put in for

the restructuring of the 2015 budget.

ANWAR IBRAHIM

[KENYATAAN MEDIA] Penurunan Harga Minyak dan Junaman Ringgit: Kerajaan Perlu Bertindak Segera

Posted: 18 Jan 2015 05:30 AM PST

18 JANUARI 2015
KENYATAAN MEDIA
UNTUK EDARAN SEGERA

Penurunan Harga Minyak dan Junaman Ringgit: Kerajaan Perlu Bertindak Segera

Pada 12 Disember tahun lalu, saya telah memaklumkan kepada rakyat Malaysia untuk

bersedia menghadapi waktu-waktu sukar kerana kita sedang berhadapan dengan hentakan

berganda melalui penurunan harga minyak mentah antarabangsa di samping penyusutan nilai

Ringgit Malaysia ke tahap terendah semenjak krisis kewangan Asia pada tahun 1997.

Harga minyak mentah Brent terus menurun. Sehingga kini, ia telah menyusut sebanyak 53

peratus dari tahun lepas, yakni daripada purata 108 Dollar Amerika Syarikat setong pada

Januari 2014 kepada 51 Dollar Amerika Syarikat secara purata bagi bulan Januari 2015.

Nilai Ringgit kini merupakan matawang Asia yang paling lemah, mengkesampingkan nilai

Yen. Ia telah menyusut kepada RM3.55 untuk setiap 1 Dollar Amerika Syarikat daripada

RM3.32 setahun yang lalu. Sejak Oktober 2014, ringgit telah menyusut hampir 8.3 peratus.

Benar, bahawa matawang Asia yang lain turut menyusut dan terkesan ke atas Dollar Amerika

Syarikat, tetapi matawang kita jatuh hampir dua kali ganda jika dibanding Dollar Taiwan dan

Dollar Singapura pada 4.59 peratus dan 4.50 peratus masing-masing berbanding Dollar

Amerika Syarikat.

Harga minyak sawit mentah juga melemah pada anggaran 10 peratus kepada RM 2300 satu

tan.

Dampak Pada Hasil Negara

Pendapatan daripada minyak dan gas membentuk 30 peratus daripada keseluruhan

pendapatan kerajaan. Belanjawan Persekutuan 2015 yang telah dibentangkan pada 10

Oktober tahun lepas adalah berasaskan kepada julat harga minyak mentah antara 100 ke 105

Dollar Amerika Syarikat setong.

Malah sebelum penyusutan ke tahap semasa, Petronas telah memberi amaran sekiranya harga

minyak mentah pada anggaran purata 70 ke 75 Dollar Amerika Syarikat, keseluruhan

sumbangan kepada pendapatan kerajaan akan menyusut sebanyak 8 peratus. Ini bermakna

pengurangan sebanyak RM 19.4 billion daripada anggaran pendapatan sebanyak RM 242

billion ke atas unjuran belanjawan 2015.

Kini, dalam pada harga minyak menurun hampir separuh, apakah dampak sebenar ke atas

pendapatan negara?

Meskipun dimaklumi bahawa akan berlaku penjimatan subsidi minyak, namun sebagaimana

yang dilapor oleh Maybank Research di dalam penerbitan terbaharu mereka, penyusutan

pendapatan sebanyak RM 8.4 billion akan melangkaui penjimatan subsidi dan mengakibatkan

defisit fiskal sebanyak 4 peratus daripada Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar (KDNK) dan

bukannya seperti yang sasaran 3 peratus untuk tahun 2015.

Menurut Goldman Sachs dan Morgan Stanley, harga minyak mentah bakal terus terapung di

antara 40 ke 50 Dollar Amerika Syarikat pada tahun 2015. Ini membawa maksud kesan ke

atas pendapatan kerajaan dan defisit akan menjadi lebih parah. Beberapa penganalisis

memberi peringatan mengenai tahap defisit yang mampu mencecah setinggi 5 peratus. Ini

akan berlanjutan sekiranya nilai Ringgit Malaysia terus menyusut dan harga minyak sawit

mentah terus jatuh.

Dari segi pelaburan ekuiti, menurut CLSA (Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia), Malaysia

mencatatkan prestasi pasaran saham terburuk Asia pada tahun 2014. Meskipun bursa saham

Indonesia, Thailand dan Singapura masih berjaya mencatatkan pertumbuhan positif, bursa

saham negara mencatatkan penurunan yang signifikan.

Selain daripada faktor-faktor yang dinyatakan terdahulu, terdapat juga isu berkaitan aliran

keluar modal asing daripada kedua-dua pasaran bon Ringgit (45 peratus daripada keseluruhan

MGS (sekuriti kerajaan Malaysia)) dan ekuiti. Tarikan pasaran yang lemah serta

ketidaktentuan fiskal akan mendorong Ringgit menyusut ke tahap terendah dalam sejarah

serta menolak kadar pulangan MGS dan menaikkan kos pembiayaan (nisbah hutang kepada

KDNK pada 55 peratus).

Apa Yang Harus Kerajaan Lakukan Sekarang?

Pertama sekali, korupsi dan ketirisan perlu ditangani. Kami melalui Pakatan Rakyat telah

membentangkan dalam Belanjawan Bayangan Pakatan Rakyat 2015 bahawa penjimatan

konservatif hanya pada kadar 15 peratus dalam ketirisan perbelanjaan kerajaan mampu

menjimatkan hampir RM 20 billion atau bersamaan 1.6 peratus daripada unjuran KDNK.

Kedua, kita harus menghentikan budaya pembaziran serta cara hidup mewah dan boros yang

diselimuti melalui proses perolehan yang samar dan amalan penswastaan yang legap.

Kerajaan perlu berhenti menyorok setiap hutang lapuk di bawah hamparan luar kunci kira-

kira.

Tiada satu sebarang alternatif kepada tatakelola yang baik selain daripada maklumat yang

benar dan telus berhubung kewangan negara. Dalam hal ini, kita sudah sedia terkesan

dibebani skandal 1MDB. Rakyat sudah muak dan tidak mampu bertolak ansur lagi.

Ketiga, Jawatankuasa Krisis Nasional yang bersifat rentas parti politik perlu ditubuhkan pada

kadar segera melibatkan Ahli-ahli Parlimen Kerajaan dan Pembangkang, para ekonomis,

pakar-pakar pasaran serta pakar dalam bidang-bidang berkaitan.

Jawatankuasa ini, antara lain hendaklah ditugaskan dengan peranan dan tanggungjawab untuk

memantau harga komoditi setiap hari dan diberikan kuasa untuk melaksanakan segala

langkah bersesuaian untuk mengurangkan dampak negatif selepas sebarang konsensus

dicapai.

Keempat, kerajaan perlu bersedia untuk memperkenalkan langkah-langkah penjimatan

sekiranya harga minyak menyusut ke tahap lebih rendah dan kekal statik. Ini bermaksud

keperluan memangkas projek-projek mega, tetapi meneruskan perbelanjaan dalam bidang-

bidang kritikal seperti kesihatan, pendidikan, dan bantuan kemanusiaan untuk mangsa banjir.

Perlu diingatkan bahawa negara-negara yang bergantung kepada hasil mahsul minyak seperti

Norway (yang mempunyai tatakelola terbaik) juga telah berada dalam mod bersedia untuk

berhadapan dengan kesan jangka panjang berikutan harga minyak yang rendah.

Diakui bahawa pergerakan harga komoditi antarabangsa merupakan sesuatu di luar kawalan

kita. Sungguhpun begitu, kita berkemampuan mengawal seluruh cara perbelanjaan dan

pengurusan kewangan negara.

Di sinilah kerajaan gagal dan terus gagal meskipun Pakatan Rakyat berulang kali menggesa

agar berpijak pada bumi yang nyata dan mengambil langkah-langkah pencegahan. Apakah

yang telah dilakukan sebelum ini? Apakah ini sikap yang memperlihatkan kesungguhan

kerajaan untuk bertransformasi?

Krisis Banjir dan Pengajarannya

Inilah sikap yang sama yang telah mengakibatkan kemusnahan dek bencana banjir baru-baru

ini. Banjir merupakan satu fenomena saban tahun yang telah berlaku berabad lamanya, tetapi

tiada langkah kawalan dan pencegahan yang serius dilaksanakan oleh pihak kerajaan.

Dalam hal ini, kita harus mengagumi badan-badan NGO yang datang beramai-ramai

menghulur bantuan. Melangkaui batas agama dan bangsa yang berbeza, sokongan dan

kesiapsiagaan untuk membantu mangsa-mangsa banjir merupakan sesuatu yang belum

pernah berlaku sebelumnya dan menunjukkan peri penting Kerajaan Persekutuan

bekerjasama dengan Kerajaan-kerajaan Negeri Pakatan Rakyat bersekali dengan badan-badan

NGO.

Mesej Kepada Rakyat

Zaman sukar menanti kita kesan daripada perbelanjaan kerajaan yang bakal dikurangkan dan

pertumbuhan ekonomi yang turut menguncup. Rakyat perlu kekal berjimat cermat dan

jangan menambah hutang atau komitmen kewangan yang tidak perlu.

Tatkala inflasi berterusan meningkat di saat penggajian kekal di takuk lama, rakyat akan

berhadapan dengan kesukaran ekonomi yang hebat dan ketidakseimbangan pendapatan akan

terus melebar.

Justeru, kami menggesa kerajaan agar telus dalam meramal ekonomi negara. Rakyat

menantikan pengumuman Selasa ini dan menjangkakan usaha Kerajaan Persekutuan yang

serius lagi bersungguh-sungguh untuk menstruktur semula Belanjawan 2015.

ANWAR IBRAHIM

www.telokkemang.blogspot.com/

www.telokkemang.blogspot.com/


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Posted: 18 Jan 2015 03:42 AM PST

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